Start from cash
EBITDA is an opinion, cash is a fact. Every thesis begins with cash conversion and real debt.
Financial Analysis · M&A · Private Equity · Venture
I turn raw accounts into investment decisions: adjustments, valuation, structuring and thesis - every assumption traceable, every figure defensible.
A good case fits on one page. A good analysis holds up to the next adjustment. I look for the gap between what the accounts show and what they are worth.
EBITDA is an opinion, cash is a fact. Every thesis begins with cash conversion and real debt.
A multiple applied to un-normalised EBITDA only values an illusion. Adjustments always come before price.
A decision memo: recommendation first, quantified risks next, appendices for whoever wants to check.
Read a data room like an auditor, conclude like an investor.
→ Decision memo
Triangulate value rather than decree it.
→ Defensible value range
Measure what drives returns: growth, multiple or deleveraging.
→ Quantified investment case
From term sheet to accretion: understand who captures value.
→ Investment memo
Each module reproduces an analyst's reflex. Change the assumptions: calculations, alerts and notes update live.
Cross profitability, structure and leverage to go from a universe to a shortlist.
Illustrative data - simplified model for demonstration.
Accruals, prepaid and deferred items: closing entries reveal where EBITDA was smoothed. I always compare December with January.
Overdue tax and social liabilities, deconsolidated factoring, earn-outs, litigation provisions: anything paid in cash before the buyer is debt.
Price assumes a 'normal' working capital. A target that stretches suppliers before closing sells its cash twice.
A 2.0x MOIC is a 26% IRR over 3 years, 15% over 5. They don't tell an LP the same story.
In a VC portfolio, one position often returns the fund. You don't invest in the median case; you invest in the tail.
Revenue synergies are promised. I only value those with an owner, a timeline and an implementation cost.
Paying 10x EBITDA implicitly assumes a growth rate and a cost of capital. Making them explicit prevents overpaying.
For a distressed target, comparing liquidation value with going-concern value sets the floor and ceiling of the negotiation.
Sector analyses, case studies and methodological notes.
All notesFrom reported earnings to normalised EBITDA: the five adjustments that most often move the price of a deal.
For a distressed target, two values frame any offer. A method to build and compare them.
Tools, models and projects built to answer a precise question.
All projectsAn opportunity, an analysis to challenge or a conversation about a deal: I reply within 48 hours.